發布時間:2019-05-28    關鍵字:中國股市



The trade war is now the biggest risk to markets. The resumption of the trade war between the United States and China has surprised investors and hit global stocks. Since May 5, when President Donald Trump first tweeted his intention to raise tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods to 25%, the S&P 500 index has dropped 4.5%, led by the technology sector’s 5.4% decline. Utilities stocks have held up best over that time, rising 0.2% since the trade conflict between the world’s two largest economies re-escalated. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has lost 3.6%. While the broad S&P 500 is likely to remain volatile in the days to come—moving up or down sharply on every trade war-related headline—it’s easier to predict the sector-level implications of a prolonged trade war. Technology, materials, and industrials companies stand to lose the most from a prolonged conflict. They have the greatest reliance on Chinese manufacturing, as well as a larger concentration of customers in China. 貿易戰現在是市場面臨的最大風險。美國和中國之間的貿易戰恢復令投資者感到意外,并打擊了全球股市。自5月5日唐納德特朗普總統首次發布其將2000億美元中國商品的關稅提高至25%的意向后,標準普爾500指數下跌4.5%,其中科技板塊下跌5.4%。公用事業股在此期間表現最佳,自世界兩大經濟體之間的貿易沖突再度升級以來上漲了0.2%。道瓊斯工業平均指數下跌3.6%。雖然廣泛的標準普爾500指數可能會在未來幾天保持波動 - 在每個與貿易戰相關的標題上大幅上漲或下跌 - 但更容易預測長期貿易戰的行業層面影響。技術,材料和工業公司在長期沖突中損失最大。他們最依賴中國制造業,以及更多的中國客戶。

The sectors face increased costs from tariffs or other trade disruptions, as well as falling sales if economic growth in China falters or the government responds with other, non-tariff barriers for foreign business. A proposed round of U.S. tariffs on an additional $300 billion of Chinese goods could mean that practically every item that China exports to the U.S. is slapped with a 25% tax by the end of June. 如果中國的經濟增長步履蹣跚或政府對外國企業的其他非關稅壁壘作出反應,這些部門將面臨關稅或其他貿易中斷的成本上升,以及銷售額下降。美國對另外3000億美元的中國商品征收的一輪美國關稅可能意味著,到6月底,中國出口到美國的幾乎每件商品都要征收25%的稅。



According to the office of the U.S. Trade Representative, the top export categories from the U.S. to China in 2018 were aircraft ($18 billion), machinery ($14 billion), and electrical machinery ($13 billion). Count industrial names like Boeing (BA), Cummins (CMI), Emerson (EMR), or Ingersoll-Rand (IR) as particularly exposed to China, per Strategas Research Partners. A.O. Smith (AOS), a manufacturer of water pumps and heaters, derived about a third of its revenues from China last year. Its shares have dropped 10.3% since May 5. 據美國貿易代表辦公室稱,2018年美國到中國的最大出口類別是飛機(180億美元),機械(140億美元)和電機(130億美元)。根據Strategas Research Partners的統計,波音(BA),康明斯(CMI),艾默生(EMR)或英格索蘭(IR)等工業品牌特別受中國影響。 A.O.史密斯(AOS)是一家水泵和加熱器制造商,去年從中國獲得了大約三分之一的收入。其股價自5月5日以來下跌10.3%。

The values of industrial commodities like copper or iron ore are sensitive to global economic growth, and to the extent that the U.S.-China trade conflict leads to a drop in activity, their prices will follow. Copper prices have already dropped over 3% since the start of last week. Over that time, Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), the world’s second-largest copper producer, has seen its shares fall 10.4%.銅或鐵礦石等工業商品的價值對全球經濟增長敏感,而且在美中貿易沖突導致活動減少的情況下,其價格將隨之而來。自上周初以來,銅價已經下跌超過3%。在此期間,全球第二大銅生產商Freeport-McMoRan(FCX)的股價下跌10.4%。

Chinese retaliatory tariffs have hit U.S. agricultural products particularly hard, including soybeans, of which the U.S. exported $3.1 billion last year. That’s been tough for U.S. farmers, but the resulting oversupply has helped meat processor Tyson Foods (TSN) thanks to lower feedstock costs. Tyson’s stock is up 6% since the trade war re-escalated last week. Things could be more bleak from the Chinese stock market perspective. Chinese equities also experienced a bounce, up 2% on Wednesday, but it may not last long, according to a CNBC analysis of Kensho data. 從中國股市的角度來看,情況可能會更加暗淡。根據CNBC對Kensho數據的分析,中國股市也出現反彈,周三上漲2%,但可能不會持續很長時間。

The iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) still tumbled more than 7 percent last week. Over the past 5 years, Chinese stocks have suffered similar losses on five other occasions, according to Kensho, an analytics tool used by Wall Street banks and hedge funds to mine market history for trading insights. iShares中國大型股ETF(FXI)上周仍下挫超過7%。據Kensho稱,在過去5年中,中國股市在其他五個時期遭受了類似的損失,這是華爾街銀行和對沖基金用于挖掘市場歷史以獲取交易見解的分析工具。

After similar drops, the bearish trend continues, with Chinese equities trading negatively 100 percent of the time a month later, losing an average of 3.5 percent. During those periods, the S&P 500 has traded negatively 2 out of 5 times, with an average return of -0.21%.在出現類似下跌之后,看跌趨勢仍在繼續,中國股市在一個月后的100%時間內出現負面交易,平均下跌3.5%。在此期間,標準普爾500指數5次中有2次交易,平均回報率為-0.21%。



Fear alone about what China can do has got stocks sharply lower to start the week. Perhaps this will bring the U.S. President to the table, and off the Twitter, but maybe not until after a stock market correction. I see wisdom in hedging market risk now and raising cash levels. The risk of unorthodox responses and unwanted side effects in this trade war is returning to factor analyses, and it is important enough now to protect wealth stores. 對于中國可以做的事情的擔憂,本周開始股市大幅走低。也許這會讓美國總統上臺,而不是推特,但也許不會在股市調整之后。我現在看到了對沖市場風險和提高現金水平的智慧。在這場貿易戰中,非正統反應和不必要的副作用的風險正在回歸因素分析,現在重要的是保護財富店


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