Overview of Chinese Stock Maket Condition
發布時間:2019-05-29    關鍵字:中國股票市場

中國股票市場情況概述

01

The?trade?war?is?now?the?biggest?risk?to?markets.?The?resumption?of?the?trade?war?between?the?United?States?and?China?has?surprised?investors?and?hit?global?stocks.?Since?May?5,?when?President?Donald?Trump?first?tweeted?his?intention?to?raise?tariffs?on?$200?billion?of?Chinese?goods?to?25%,?the?S&P?500?index?has?dropped?4.5%,?led?by?the?technology?sector’s?5.4%?decline.?Utilities?stocks?have?held?up?best?over?that?time,?rising?0.2%?since?the?trade?conflict?between?the?world’s?two?largest?economies?re-escalated.?The?Dow?Jones?Industrial?Average?has?lost?3.6%.?While?the?broad?S&P?500?is?likely?to?remain?volatile?in?the?days?to?come—moving?up?or?down?sharply?on?every?trade?war-related?headline—it’s?easier?to?predict?the?sector-level?implications?of?a?prolonged?trade?war.?Technology,?materials,?and?industrials?companies?stand?to?lose?the?most?from?a?prolonged?conflict.?They?have?the?greatest?reliance?on?Chinese?manufacturing,?as?well?as?a?larger?concentration?of?customers?in?China.?

貿易戰現在是市場面臨的最大風險。美國和中國之間的貿易戰恢復令投資者感到意外,并打擊了全球股市。

自5月5日唐納德特朗普總統首次發布其將2000億美元中國商品的關稅提高至25%的意向后,標準普爾500指數下跌4.5%,其中科技板塊下跌5.4%。公用事業股在此期間表現最佳,自世界兩大經濟體之間的貿易沖突再度升級以來上漲了0.2%。道瓊斯工業平均指數下跌3.6%。雖然廣泛的標準普爾500指數可能會在未來幾天保持波動?-?在每個與貿易戰相關的標題上大幅上漲或下跌?-?但更容易預測長期貿易戰的行業層面影響。技術、材料和工業公司在長期沖突中損失最大。他們最依賴中國制造業,以及更多的中國客戶。

The?sectors?face?increased?costs?from?tariffs?or?other?trade?disruptions,?as?well?as?falling?sales?if?economic?growth?in?China?falters?or?the?government?responds?with?other,?non-tariff?barriers?for?foreign?business.?A?proposed?round?of?U.S.?tariffs?on?an?additional?$300?billion?of?Chinese?goods?could?mean?that?practically?every?item?that?China?exports?to?the?U.S.?is?slapped?with?a?25%?tax?by?the?end?of?June.?

如果中國的經濟增長步履蹣跚或政府對外國企業的其他非關稅壁壘作出反應,這些部門將面臨關稅或其他貿易中斷的成本上升,以及銷售額下降。美國對另外3000億美元的中國商品征收的一輪美國關稅可能意味著,到6月底,中國出口到美國的幾乎每件商品都要征收25%的稅。

02

According?to?the?office?of?the?U.S.?Trade?Representative,?the?top?export?categories?from?the?U.S.?to?China?in?2018?were?aircraft?($18?billion),?machinery?($14?billion),?and?electrical?machinery?($13?billion).?Count?industrial?names?like?Boeing?(BA),?Cummins?(CMI),?Emerson?(EMR),?or?Ingersoll-Rand?(IR)?as?particularly?exposed?to?China,?per?Strategas?Research?Partners.?A.O.?Smith?(AOS),?a?manufacturer?of?water?pumps?and?heaters,?derived?about?a?third?of?its?revenues?from?China?last?year.?Its?shares?have?dropped?10.3%?since?May?5.?

據美國貿易代表辦公室稱,2018年美國到中國的最大出口類別是飛機(180億美元),機械(140億美元)和電機(130億美元)。根據Strategas?Research?Partners的統計,波音(BA),康明斯(CMI),艾默生(EMR)或英格索蘭(IR)等工業品牌特別受中國影響。?A.O.史密斯(AOS)是一家水泵和加熱器制造商,去年從中國獲得了大約三分之一的收入。其股價自5月5日以來下跌10.3%。

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The?values?of?industrial?commodities?like?copper?or?iron?ore?are?sensitive?to?global?economic?growth,?and?to?the?extent?that?the?U.S.-China?trade?conflict?leads?to?a?drop?in?activity,?their?prices?will?follow.?Copper?prices?have?already?dropped?over?3%?since?the?start?of?last?week.?Over?that?time,?Freeport-McMoRan?(FCX),?the?world’s?second-largest?copper?producer,?has?seen?its?shares?fall?10.4%.

銅或鐵礦石等工業商品的價值對全球經濟增長敏感,而且在美中貿易沖突導致活動減少的情況下,其價格將隨之而來。自上周初以來,銅價已經下跌超過3%。在此期間,全球第二大銅生產商Freeport-McMoRan(FCX)的股價下跌10.4%。

Chinese?retaliatory?tariffs?have?hit?U.S.?agricultural?products?particularly?hard,?including?soybeans,?of?which?the?U.S.?exported?$3.1?billion?last?year.?That’s?been?tough?for?U.S.?farmers,?but?the?resulting?oversupply?has?helped?meat?processor?Tyson?Foods?(TSN)?thanks?to?lower?feedstock?costs.?Tyson’s?stock?is?up?6%?since?the?trade?war?re-escalated?last?week.?

中國的報復性關稅對包括大豆在內的美國農產品造成了特別嚴重的打擊,其中美國去年出口了31億美元。這對美國農民來說是艱難的,但由于原料成本較低,由此導致的供應過剩幫助了肉類加工商Tyson?Foods(TSN)。自上周貿易戰再次升級以來,泰森的股價上漲了6%。

03

Things?could?be?more?bleak?from?the?Chinese?stock?market?perspective.?Chinese?equities?also?experienced?a?bounce,?up?2%?on?Wednesday,?but?it?may?not?last?long,?according?to?a?CNBC?analysis?of?Kensho?data.

從中國股市的角度來看,情況可能會更加暗淡。根據CNBC對Kensho數據的分析,中國股市也出現反彈,周三上漲2%,但可能不會持續很長時間。

The?iShares?China?Large-Cap?ETF?(FXI)?still?tumbled?more?than?7?percent?last?week.?Over?the?past?5?years,?Chinese?stocks?have?suffered?similar?losses?on?five?other?occasions,?according?to?Kensho,?an?analytics?tool?used?by?Wall?Street?banks?and?hedge?funds?to?mine?market?history?for?trading?insights.?

中國大型股ETF(FXI)上周仍下挫超過7%。據Kensho稱,在過去5年中,中國股市在其他五個時期遭受了類似的損失,這是華爾街銀行和對沖基金用于挖掘市場歷史以獲取交易見解的分析工具。

After?similar?drops,?the?bearish?trend?continues,?with?Chinese?equities?trading?negatively?100?percent?of?the?time?a?month?later,?losing?an?average?of?3.5?percent.?During?those?periods,?the?S&P?500?has?traded?negatively?2?out?of?5?times,?with?an?average?return?of?-0.21%.

在出現類似下跌之后,看跌趨勢仍在繼續,中國股市在一個月后的100%時間內出現負面交易,平均下跌3.5%。在此期間,標準普爾500指數5次中有2次交易,平均回報率為-0.21%。

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